The recurring incidence of grid collapse is attributed to ageing facilities, lack of maintenance, inadequate investment in the power sector and vandalization of power facilities, leading to disruption of business activities and delays in healthcare services, as experienced in places like the University College Hospital, Ibadan.
The national power grid is a vast network of electrical transmission lines that link power stations to end-use customers across the nation and is designed to function within specific stability boundaries, including voltage (330kV ± 5.0%) and frequency (50Hz ± 0.5%). Any deviation from these stability ranges can result in decreased power quality and, in severe cases, cause widespread power outages ranging from a partial collapse of a section of the grid to a full system-wide blackout.
Over the past 15 years, Nigeria has grappled with a cycle of grid failures, peaking in 2010 when citizens endured a staggering 42 instances of being plunged into the abyss of darkness. National grid collapses rose in 2024, following a pattern of consistent fluctuations in previous years.
Whether it’s partial collapses, total blackouts, or fleeting system disturbances, the weight of the national grid’s failures has always landed squarely on the shoulders of the people. Left in the lurch, they must navigate a maze of darkness, adapting their lives to an unreliable power supply that darkens their homes and offices.
An analysis of the incidences of grid collapses across four successive administrations since 2011 shows that there is a pattern of increased grid collapses during the second year of successive administrations, except Buhari’s second term. Overall, each administration has faced its share of grid collapses, highlighting a systemic issue that must be tackled.
Nafisat Ali, the executive director of the Independent System Operator (ISO) department at TCN, stated in April 2024 that grid collapses in Nigeria result from shared failures across the entire power value chain, involving generation companies, transmission, and distribution entities.
She said “From generation companies, there is the inadequacy of gas supply, improper coordination of plants and gas pipelines and poor generation availability. Under the transmission value chain, there is a lack of operating/spinning reserve and voltage support scheme, lack of reliable SCADA facility, vandalism, tripping of critical infrastructure lines, transition line redundancy, and lack of reliable communication facility are the causes for grid collapse.
For the distribution companies (DisCos), there are weak distribution networks, load allocation violations, and lack of visibility on the DisCos network, among others, as the reasons for the unending collapse.”
Electricity supply in Nigeria goes through three major phases: Generation, Transmission, and Distribution. The first phase, generation, is where electricity is produced. This involves converting various energy sources, such as natural gas, hydro, or renewable sources, into electrical energy through power plants operated by generation companies (GenCos).
The second phase, transmission, involves transporting the generated electricity over long distances through the national grid. This phase, managed by the Transmission Company of Nigeria (TCN), ensures the transfer of high-voltage power to various regions across the country.
The third phase, distribution, is where electricity is delivered to end-users, including households, businesses, and industries. This phase is handled by distribution companies (DisCos), who step down the high-voltage power to levels suitable for consumer use.
The Nigerian power sector has undergone major reforms over the years. A significant initiative was the enactment of the Electric Power Sector Reform Act (EPSR Act) in 2005. The reform was necessitated by the lack of a commensurate increase in energy supply to meet the country’s growing economic and infrastructural development objective. This led to the decision to break up the defunct National Electric Power Authority (NEPA) into small, effective units.
By this EPSR Act, NEPA was unbundled into 18 companies: Six Generation Companies, One Transmission Company and Eleven Distribution Companies. All were issued Operation Licences. In November 2013, the federal government privatised all power generation and 11 distribution companies while retaining ownership of the transmission company. The move was aimed at enhancing efficiency within the power sector.
The GenCos generate power and supply it to the national grid managed by the Transmission Company of Nigeria (TCN), while the transmission company transmits the power from the grid to its substations, which is where it is delivered to DisCos at a lower voltage and then to homes.
Despite these reforms, the power supply in Nigeria remains unstable.
Glaring Gaps
What could be the challenge? Funding? Operational Inefficiency? Corruption?
The Minister of Power, Chief Adebayo Adelabu, has said that one of the major challenges facing the power sector is the need to replace outdated infrastructure and increase investment to enhance power efficiency. In November, the minister stated, “Achieving 24-hour power supply across Nigeria within the next five to ten years will require a minimum investment of $10 billion.”
An analysis of the expenditure in the power sector in the last 7 years shows the possibility of the sector being underfunded, and that could be due to many reasons.
In 2024, the ministry only spent N7.3 billion on activities related to power generation and supply. This is a 69% decrease from what was spent in 2023. It is also the lowest expenditure among the top ministries in the same period.
Similarly, the total expenditure of the Transmission Company of Nigeria, the agency in charge of the National Grid has remained unchanged since 2018. Aside from the major increase in expenditure in 2019, the commission has never spent up to N3 billion on its projects and general activities in 7 years.
A closer look at the state of infrastructure in Nigeria’s power sector paints a concerning picture. As of October, the country’s 28 grid-connected power plants are running at 40% of their installed capacity. These plants, which include 19 gas-powered, 5 hydro, 2 steam, and 2 gas/steam hybrid facilities, boast a total installed capacity of 13,625 MW. However, their actual output lags significantly behind, operating at only 5,397 MW.
This stark underutilization underscores the pressing need for strategic interventions to unlock the sector’s full potential. According to the International Trade Administration, Nigeria will need substantial additional generation capacity to meet demands through 2030 due to rapid population growth.
As the population expands, the demand for electricity to power businesses and homes will only intensify. Without decisive action to address the current challenges in the sector, households and businesses will continue to suffer the consequences.
In the October Business Expectation Survey by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), inadequate power supply is the 4th highest factor constraining businesses in Nigeria. This suggests that the persistent energy challenges are not only hindering operational efficiency but also limiting economic growth and the competitiveness of Nigerian businesses.
Despite the challenges faced in achieving energy security in Nigeria, there are opportunities for entrepreneurship and economic growth in the sector. The lack of access to reliable energy has left many affected businesses and disrupted household activities.
Enhancing the efficiency and reliability of energy supply will undoubtedly benefit everyone. However, until significant structural changes take place, we wish you and your loved ones a grid-stable week.
Source: Data Dives / Dataphyte
